In this interview, Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, discusses the real estate company’s latest housing report.

Soper talks about where home prices are headed in 2024, what to expect in sales, the impact of increased mortgage rates, the challenge of supply in Canada and affordability.

PRESS RELEASE

TORONTO, Dec. 14, 2023 /CNW/ – After years of unprecedented irregularity, Canadians may see the real estate market return closer to normal in 2024. According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada is set to increase 5.5 per cent year over year to $843,684 in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the median price of a single-family detached property and condominium projected to increase 6.0 per cent and 5.0 to $879,164 and $616,140, respectively.2

“Looking ahead, we see 2024 as an important tipping point for the national economy as the majority of Canadians acknowledge that the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone,” said Phil Soper, President and CEO, Royal LePage. “We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.”

Home prices are expected to rise next year in all major markets across the country, with Calgary forecast to see the greatest gains. Throughout the second half of 2023, while prices have been declining in other cities, the Calgary real estate market has bucked the trend continuing on an upward price trajectory.

Royal LePage’s forecast is based on the prediction that the Bank of Canada has concluded its interest rate hike campaign and that the key lending rate will hold steady at five per cent through the first half of 2024. The central bank is expected to start making modest cuts in late summer or fall of next year. Meanwhile, several major financial institutions have already begun offering discounts on fixed-rate mortgages.

“For the last year, many Canadians have been fixated on the idea of interest rates needing to come down significantly before they can afford to enter or re-enter the housing market. Acceptance that a mortgage rate of four to five per cent is the new normal should untether pent-up demand as first-time buyers, flush with savings collected during the extended down market in housing, regain the confidence to go home shopping. And, with the return of first-timer demand, we expect families who have put off upgrading their homes to begin to list their properties in much greater numbers,” continued Soper.

How we got here
Over the last eighteen months, sales activity in most of Canada’s major real estate markets has been on the decline, while inventory levels have gradually increased. While transactions are down as much as 20 or 30 per cent in some regions, home prices have only declined modestly during this time, due to a simultaneous drop in demand as buyer hopefuls continue to hold out for lower interest rates. Still, prices remain above 2022 levels.

“Canada’s real estate market has been on a roller coaster ride for the last four years. A global pandemic briefly brought market activity to a grinding halt in early 2020, followed by a rapid, widespread spike in demand and price appreciation as Canadians sought safety and greater living space in their homes among a world of uncertainty. By the spring of 2022, home prices had reached unprecedented highs, but when interest rates started rising quickly and steeply to combat inflation, the extended market correction began,” said Soper. “Markets take time to adjust. We see a move toward typical home sale transaction levels in 2024, and as the year progresses, appreciating house prices.”

Quarterly forecast
Nationally, home prices are forecast to see modest quarterly gains in the first two quarters of 2024, with more considerable increases